The NPF stands a strong chance of winning the Outer Constituency, but On Iron Hand

The first phase of the two-phase Lok Sabha election for Manipur is just three days away. The II-Outer Manipur will be the only parliamentary constituency in the whole country that will go for a two-phase poll on April 19 and 26.

The first phase covers the whole valley districts and those hill districts inhabited predominantly by the Kukis, while the second phase will cover mostly the Naga-dominated districts.

In the Outer Manipur constituency, the fact that all the four candidates belong to the Naga tribes doesn't prevent them from electioneering in their areas of influence. Whereas the election campaign in the Kuki areas is dominated by closed-door meetings with the community leaders, it is more open in the Naga areas as the current state-sponsored ethnic cleansing campaign hardly affected them.

It may be noted that most of the Naga tribal bodies, including the United Naga Council (UNC), declared their support for the Naga People's Front (NPF) candidate Mr. Kachui Timothy Zimik; however, the other candidates are no less active.

In Ukhrul, the election campaign of Mr. Alfred Kanngam S. Arthur of the Congress was disturbed by gunshots in at least three consecutive meetings. Similarly, Dr. Alyson Abonmai, an Independent candidate, was prohibited from conducting election campaign meetings in both Noney and Tamenglong district headquarters, supposedly by NSCN-IM cadres. Unfortunately, he was not even allowed to buy fruits and vegetables from the Rani Gaidinliu Market in Tamenglong.

A few days ago, a Congress flag was forcefully removed in Tamenglong, though the flags of NPF, NPP, and BJP are seen standing together in the heart of the district headquarters.

In a similar situation, a banner went viral, which says that no outsiders should enter the Poumai jurisdiction till April 29, except for official election duty. The banner was supposedly made by an order of the Poumai Naga Union (PNU).

In short, only the NPF candidate is allowed to campaign in Zeliangrong-dominated districts of Tamenglong and Noney, and only Mr. S. Kho John, a Poumai himself, is probably the only candidate who can venture around in Poumai areas of Senapati.

All these hinted that the NPF candidate is likely to get the major share of the Naga votes in the Zeliangrong areas and Mr. S. Kho John is likely to dominate the Poumai areas unless voting is done in a free and fair manner.

Among the Tangkhuls, the NPF and Congress candidates, both belonging to the Tangkhul tribe, are expected to share votes more or less proportionately if voting is along ethnic lines as usual.

However, in Chandel and all the Kuki and Meitei-dominated areas within the Outer constituency, votes are likely to be distributed among all the four candidates. In this situation, the NPF is the most likely candidate to win the poll unless either the Kuki or Meitei voters decide to support some other candidates en masse.

In whatever direction the election wind blows, the upcoming Lok Sabha election for the Outer (ST) constituency is witnessing an unhealthy electoral exercise since the Kukis abstain from contesting, on the one hand, and NSCN-IM cadres and Naga frontal organisations are seen openly supporting a particular candidate, on the other.

(Courtesy: KSO Bulletin, Thingkho le Malcha, Issue No. 212, 17th April 2024).