A Write-Up on Manipur Assembly Election 2017: Rejected by Three Newspapers

1. Manipur Assembly Election 2017:  A Fight between Two National Parties

Manipur goes to poll for the 11^th Assembly elections in two phases on March 4 and 8 respectively, while counting will be done along with that of the other four states—UP, Punjab, Goa, and Uttarakhand—on March 11. With the first phase approaching, electioneering has been in full swing. All the major political parties contesting the election has been doing whatever is possible to woe the voters. National leaders, including BJP President Amit Shah, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi have come down to Manipur to campaign for their party candidates.

In the first phase, 38 Assembly Constituencies (AC) will go to poll to decide the fate of 168 candidates. In the second phase, a total of 98 candidates will be seen in the fray for 22 seats. Significantly, keeping in view the present volatile situation in the Naga areas, the Election Commission included the nine AC dominated by the Kukis for the first phase, and left the 11 AC dominated by the Nagas, including Chandel and Tengnoupal AC where both the Kukis and Nagas inhabited proportionately, for the second phase.

The Main Contest                                            

The upcoming Assembly elections saw the participation of as many as 18 political parties, and 25 Independent candidates though it is expected to be mainly a contest between the two major national parties: Congress and BJP. While the BJP put up its candidates in all the 60 AC, the Congress has 58 after its candidates in Churachandpur and Kangpokpi AC left the party.

In many of the smaller states of India, the party at the centre has been the prefer choice–the latest example being Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. Yet, this doesn’t mean that smaller states do not have their own dynamics of electoral politics different from that of the national trend. Manipur is not an exception.

In this regard, it may be recalled that the BJP won only six seats in the Assembly elections of Manipur in 2002 while the centre was ruled by BJP led NDA government with Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee as Prime Minister. In the last Assembly election of 2012, Congress won 42 seats against BJP’s nil though it won the two by-elections in 2015. However, in terms of formation of government, in most cases a coalition ministry, the party at the centre has great influenced on the state polity untill the stringent anti-defection law was passed in 2003.

The Congress has the advantage of being in power in the state for the past 15 years, and the BJP being the party in power at the centre.

Under this circumstance, the upcoming election is expected to be a straight fight between the two grand parties, especially in the Valley. But, Manipur being a tiny state, smaller parties like the NPP, LDF, NCP, NEIDP, and others will also play a signicant role. In the Hill areas, NPF will be an important player in the 11 AC where the Nagas have a significant presence. But the recent political crisis in the neighbouring state of Nagaland may have a negative impact on the poll prospect of the party in Manipur.

Issue of Territorial Integrity

As expected, the question of territorial integrity has been the most important issue on the eve of election. On the other, Armed Forces (Special Power) Act, or in short AFSPA, has been pushed backstage after the lone hunger striker Irom Chanu Sharmila ended her 16 years old fast to fight the same from the electoral platform. At the same time, the issue of territorial intergrity has been made more relevant by the four months long United Naga Council sponsored ‘economic blockade’ against the state government decision to create seven new districts, and the Framework Agreement signed between the Government of India with NSCN-IM on August 3, 2015.

While the BJP has been trying every possible means to wrest power from the Congress, the experienced seasoned politician Shri Okram Ibobi Singh has u-turned the tide in favour of the grand old party by creating seven new districts overnight on December 8, 2016. This was dubed to woe voters from the Meitei majority 40 AC in the valley, and those of nine AC dominated by the Kukis in the Hills.

The simple assumption has been that, the Congress can easily retain power if it did well in both the Valley and Kuki dominated areas. However, the question of territorial integrity is more relevant in the Valley, than the Hill areas occupied by the Naga and Kuki tribes. While the popularity of the candidates as well as the party plays a major role in deciding the voting behaviour of the people, tribe loyalty on the one hand and activities of millitant outfits on the other will have an important role in the Hills. Unemployment, corruption and poverty being inherrent in the Manipuri society, money power plays an important role in both the Hills and Valley.

Meanwhile, things got worse for the Congress when eight of its MLAs left the party on the eve of elections. Of these, six of them join the BJP and one each join NPF and NPP respectively. Likewise, one of the two BJP MLAs, Kh Joykishan Singh from Thangmeiband AC, and Laisom Ibomcha Singh, the lone NCP MLA from Keisamthong AC, joined the Congress. This left the Congress with about 40 sitting MLAs in contrast to the BJP’s one.

As a whole, the Congress under the able leadership of the three times Chief Minister O.Ibobi Singh and Deputy Chief Minister Gaikhangam has a better chance of retaining power by becoming the single largest party in the Assembly. In case of “hung assembly”, the BJP may have an edge over any other political party to form a coalition government with support from smaller parties. But the absence of a unanimous leader to lead the party during its election campaign will remained a big challenge for the BJP.***

(This article was sent to the Deccan Herald on March 1, 2017)

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2.Deciding the fate of Manipur’s territorial integrity?

    On the 11^th Assembly Elections of Manipur

In the backdrop of the interconnected issues of Framework Agreement signed between Government of India and NSCN-IM in August 2015, the four months old ‘economic blockade’ sponsored by United Naga Council (UNC) against the creation of seven new districts, and the question of ‘territorial integrity’, Manipur goes to poll for the 11^th Assembly elections in two phases on March 4 and 8 respectively. Counting is scheduled on March 11 along with that of the other four states—UP, Punjab, Goa, and Uttarakhand.

As the elections approaches, all the major political parties contesting the election has been doing whatever is possible to woe the voters. National leaders, including BJP President Amit Shah, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi have come down to Manipur to campaign for their party candidates.

In the first phase, 38 Assembly Constituencies (AC) goes to poll to decide the fate of 168 candidates. In the second phase, a total of 98 candidates will be seen in the fray for 22 seats. Significantly, keeping in view the present volatile situation in the Naga areas, the Election Commission included the nine AC dominated by the Kukis for the first phase, and left the remaining 11 AC dominated by the Nagas, including Chandel and Tengnoupal AC where both the Kukis and Nagas inhabited proportionately, for the second phase.

There are as many as 241 candidates from 18 political parties, and 25 Independent candidates. Among these, BJP is the only party supporting its candidate in all the 60 AC. The Congress come to a close second with 58 after its candidates in Churachandpur and Kangpokpi AC left the party.

In many of the smaller states of India, the party at the centre has been the prefer choice–the latest example being Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. Yet, this doesn’t mean that smaller states do not have their own dynamics of electoral politics different from that of the national trend. Manipur is not an exception.

In the previous Assembly elections, BJP had not done well winning six and five in 2002 and 2007. In the latest election of 2012, the party failed to open its account. But in the by-election held in 2015, the party capture the two seats on offer. On the other, Congress won 20 seats in 2002, 30 in 2007, and 42 in 2012. Apart from this, five MLAs from MSCP merged with the Congress in 2014, won the lone by-election of 2014, and finally four AITC MLA joined the party making Congress MLA 52 in the House of 60.

This clearly shows that history is very much in favour of the ruling Congress which has continously ruled for the last 15 years. However, the BJP has the advantage of being the party in power at the centre. On the eve of elections, eight Congress MLAs left the party of whom, six join BJP, thereby strengthening the latter. They were Nemcha Kipgen (Kangpokpi), Vungzagin Valte (Thanlon), N.Biren (Heingang), Francis Ngajokpa (Tadubi), Y.Erabot (Wangkhei), and Z.Kikhonbou Newmai (Tamei). The remaining two, i.e., Janghemlung Panmei (Tamenglong) and Phungzathang Tonsing (Churachandpur), join NPF and NPP respectively. Likewise, one of the two BJP MLA, Kh. Joykishan Singh from Thangmeiband AC, and Laisom Ibomcha Singh, the lone NCP MLA from Keisamthong AC, joined the Congress. This left the Congress with still about 40 sitting MLAs in contrast to the BJP’s one.

Under this circumstance, the upcoming election is expected to be a straight fight between the two grand parties, especially in the Valley. But, Manipur being a tiny state, smaller parties like the NPP, NCP, NEIDP, LDF, and others will play a signicant role. It may be noted here that smaller parties like AITC, MSCP and NCP which won seven, five and one respectively in 2012 lost all their MLAs before the election. While the four MLAs of NPF resigned, LJP alone remained with one MLA.

In the Hill areas, NPF may still play an important role in the Naga areas. But the recent political crisis in the neighbouring state of Nagaland may have a negative impact on the poll prospect of the party in Manipur. All these development left the BJP and Congress as the only major player for this election.

Major issues of election

As expected, the question of ‘territorial integrity’ has once again become the most important issue on the eve of election. The Prime Minister’s assurance on February 25 that the Framework Agreement will not affect the territorial integrity of Manipur failed to convince the valley people.

On the other, Armed Forces (Special Power) Act, or in short AFSPA, has been pushed backstage after the lone hunger striker Irom Chanu Sharmila ended her 16 years old fast to fight the same from the electoral platform.

While the BJP has been trying every possible means to wrest power from the Congress, the experienced seasoned politician Shri Okram Ibobi Singh has u-turned the tide in favour of the grand old party by creating seven new districts overnight on December 8, 2016. This was dubed to woe voters from the Meitei majority 40 AC in the valley, and those AC dominated by the Kukis in the Hills. The simple assumption has been that, the Congress can easily retain power if it did well in both the Valley and Kuki dominated areas.

With the UNC remaining adamant to lift the economic blockade, and the state government’s commitment on the new districts, voting is expected to be highly polarised. In the Hills, the Nagas are expected to prefer NPF, BJP or even an Independent candidate whom they considered best represent the political aspirations of the Nagas. Among the Kukis too, voting is expected to be on the basis of the individual candidate and not necessarily on party lines. Creation of new district does not necessarily guarantee that that party will be voted back to power from that area. Personal choice of candidate, family ties, Clan/tribe loyalty, and most importantly, pressure from millitant outfits are the major elements influencing voting behaviour rather than issue of common interest. This has been the common trend in the Hills. Unemployment, corruption and poverty being inherrent in the Manipuri society, money power will continue to play an important role in both the Hills and Valley.

As a whole, the Congress has not offer anything new in their manifesto for public consumption but have an able leadership in Shri Ibobi, the three times Chief Minister, and Shri Gaikhangam, his most trusted lieutenant and Deputy Chief Minister, if it is to retain power. In case of “hung assembly”, the BJP may have an edge over other political parties to form a coalition government with support from non-Congress parties. In such a situation, the party will go to any extend to dethrone the rulling party with its target: “Congress Mukh Bharat”. But the absence of a unanimous leader to lead the party during its election campaign will remained a big challenge for the BJP. Further, the outcome of this election may also largely decide the fate of the territory of Manipur.***

(This article was sent to The Hindu with little modification on March 1, 2017 itself.)

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3. The Manipur Assembly Elections 2017

In the backdrop of the three interconnected issues of Framework Agreement signed between Government of India and NSCN-IM on August 3, 2015; the four months old ‘economic blockade’ sponsored by United Naga Council (UNC) against the creation of seven new districts by the Government of Manipur since November 1, 2016; and the question of ‘territorial integrity’, Manipur goes to poll for the 11^th Assembly elections in two phases on March 4 and 8 respectively. Counting is scheduled on March 11 along with the other four states that also goes to poll—UP, Punjab, Goa, and Uttarakhand.

In the first phase, 38 Assembly Constituencies (AC) spread over six districts, viz., Imphal East, Imphal West and Bishnupur in the Valley, and Kangpokpi, Churachandpur and Pherzawl in the Hills, had already went to poll to decide the fate of 168 candidates which saw about 84 per cent of the electorates turning out to exercise their franchise. In the second phase, a total of 98 candidates are in the fray for 22 seats in the remaining ten districts, namely, Senapati, Ukhrul, Kamjong, Tamenglong, Noney, Chandel and Tengnoupal in the Hills, and Thoubal, Jiribam and Kakching in the Valley. Significantly, keeping in view the present volatile situation in the Naga areas, the Election Commission included the nine AC of the Hills purely dominated by the Kukis for the first phase including Kangpokpi, an Unreserved seat, and left the remaining 11 AC dominated by the Nagas, including Chandel and Tengnoupal AC where both the Kukis and Nagas inhabited proportionately, for the second phase. Since all the Naga dominated AC are to go for poll in the second phase, it is being eagerly waited. As the honourable High Court of Manipur, in its interim order, declared the UNC’s sponsored economic bloackade as “illegal”, the election to the 11 remaining AC of the Hills draws more interest from the people of Manipur. In its order dated 3.3.2017, the court says that “The blockade imposed by the UNC is hereby declared illegal as per directives of the honourable Supreme Court”.

Coming back to the fray, there are as many as 241 candidates from 18 political parties, and 25 Independent candidates. Among these, BJP is the only party supporting its candidates in all the 60 AC. The Congress come to a close second with 58 after its candidates in Churachandpur and Kangpokpi AC left the party. Both of them fight the election without any pre-poll alliance partner.

In many of the smaller states of India, the party at the centre has been the prefer choice–the latest example being Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. Yet, this doesn’t mean that smaller states do not have their own dynamics of electoral politics different from that of the national trend. Manipur is not an exception.

In the previous Assembly elections, BJP had never performed so well. It won only six seats in 2002, five seats in 2007, but failed to open its account in the latest election of 2012. But in the by-election held in 2015, after the BJP came to power at the centre, the party capture the two seats on offer. In contrast to BJP, the Congress won 20 seats in 2002, 30 in 2007, and 42 in 2012. Apart from this, five MLAs from Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP) merged with the Congress in 2014, and also four All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) MLA joined the party later on. It had also won the lone by-election in 2014 increasing its party MLA to 52 in the House of 60. The remaining eight seats were: Naga People’s Front (NPF)-4, BJP-2, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)-1 and Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJP)-1.

This clearly shows that history is very much in favour of the ruling Congress which has continously ruled for the last 15 years. However, this doesn’t mean the Congress will certainly retain power, because the BJP too has the advantage of being the party in power at the centre.

On the eve of elections, eight Congress MLAs left the party of whom, six join BJP, thereby strengthening the party. They were Nemcha Kipgen (Kangpokpi), Vungzagin Valte (Thanlon), N.Biren (Heingang), Francis Ngajokpa (Tadubi), Y.Erabot (Wangkhei), and Z.Kikhonbou Newmai (Tamei). The remaining two, i.e., Janghemlung Panmei (Tamenglong) and Phungzathang Tonsing (Churachandpur), join NPF and NPP respectively. Likewise, one of the two BJP MLA, Kh. Joykishan Singh from Thangmeiband AC, and Laisom Ibomcha Singh, the lone NCP MLA from Keisamthong AC, joined the Congress. This left the Congress with still more than 40 sitting MLAs.

Under this circumstance, the upcoming election was expected to be largely a fight between the two grand parties, especially in the Valley. But, Manipur being a tiny state, smaller parties also will play a signicant role. It may be noted here that AITC, MSCP and NCP won seven, five and one respectively in 2012 but lost all their MLAs before the 2017 election. While the four MLAs of NPF resigned, only LJP and BJP remained with one MLA each.

In the Hill areas, NPF with 14 candidates may still play an important role in the Naga areas. But the recent political crisis related with the 33 per cent reservation for women in Urban Local Bodies election in the neighbouring state of Nagaland may have a negative impact on the poll prospect of the party in Manipur. All these development left the BJP and Congress as the only major player for this election.

As expected, the question of ‘territorial integrity’ has once again become the most important issue on the eve of election. The Prime Minister’s assurance on February 25 that the Framework Agreement will not affect the territorial integrity of Manipur failed to convince the valley people.

On the other, Armed Forces (Special Power) Act, or in short AFSPA, has been pushed backstage after the lone hunger striker Irom Chanu Sharmila ended her 16 years old fast to fight the same from the electoral platform. Sharmila is contesting as a People’s Resurgence and Justice Alliance (PRJA) candidate against CM in Thoubal AC in the second phase. Even the issue of nine “Tribal Martyrs” remained relevant only in Churachandpur district.

While the BJP has been trying every possible means to wrest power from the Congress, the experienced seasoned politician Shri Okram Ibobi Singh has u-turned the tide in favour of the grand old party by creating seven new districts overnight on December 8, 2016. This was dubed to woe voters from the Meitei majority 40 AC in the valley, and those AC dominated by the Kukis in the Hills. The simple assumption has been that, the Congress can easily retain power if it did well in both the Valley and Kuki dominated areas.

With the UNC remaining adamant to lift the economic blockade, the ruling of the Honourable High Court, and the state government’s commitment on the new districts, voting was expected to be highly polarised. In the Hills, the Nagas are expected to prefer NPF, BJP or Independent candidates whom they considered best represent the political aspirations of the Nagas. Among the Kukis too, voting was expected to be on the basis of the individual candidate and not necessarily on party lines. Creation of new district does not necessarily guarantee that that party will be voted back to power from that area. Personal choice of candidate, family ties, Clan/tribe loyalty, and most importantly, pressure from millitant outfits are the major elements influencing voting behaviour rather than issue of common interest. This has been the common trend in the Hills. Unemployment, corruption and poverty being inherrent in the Manipuri society, money power will continue to play an important role in both the Hills and Valley.

As a whole, the Congress has not offer anything new in their manifesto for public consumption but have an able leadership in Shri Ibobi, the three times Chief Minister, and Shri Gaikhangam, his most trusted lieutenant and Deputy Chief Minister, if it is to retain power. In case of “hung assembly”, the BJP may have an edge over other political parties to form a coalition government with support from non-Congress parties. In such a situation, the party will go to any extend to dethrone the rulling party with its target: “Congress Mukh Bharat”. But the absence of a unanimous leader to lead the party during its election campaign will remained a big challenge for the BJP. Further, the outcome of this election may also largely decide the fate of the territory of Manipur, on the one hand, and the fate of the Nagas of Manipur, on the other.***

(This article was sent to The Morung Express on March 7, 2017 with further modification.)

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(NB:All the three newspapers did not even reply to my email. But I found myself predicting very close when the election result was declared on March 11, 2017)